Well, it might mean something sometimes, other times it doesn't, just like in all other sports.

Whenever i research this kind of trends, i like to do it by commence with all games that suit that trend.

Making an examination at last twenty seasons at teams which lost in last matchup with their contender and were favorites in that lost game, You will find out that no edge can be gained for teams that are on revenge. This is true in both situations whether lost matchup was played in current or prior years.

Now lets have a look what goes on if this match should be be defined as "dog revenge" i.e. if team lost that lost matchup as a dog. well, then that underdogs get some advantage. (51.7% ATS). This appears as a stunner, doesn't it?

If we take it on in our quest for advantageous NFL picks, and take a look at teams which are on a double "dog revenge" i.e. they failed to win last 2 games vs. their opposition as a dog, we have a money making information: in 53.7% cases, its gonna be smart move to bet on that team. Now this is even more stunning!

You might ask why doesn't this work out like in some other sports, when losing favourites get motivation in next game? Simply said: because teams have limited amount of games. And they don't get excited and fired up for a revenge for its been too long.

And why do previous underdogs become passionate about a revenge chance? The truth is they in fact aren't all that eager to get revenge. Because my conclusions are made taking a closing lines, the only answer is: line has moved. Required line movement is barely 1 point to come to this kind of advantage. It is very much expected since casual bettors put importance on previous encounters.

This simple NFL system will get you 50-60 bets each year and you must have a very good reason to go against it.

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